First, the terminology of ‘centre left’ and ‘centre right’ is 30 years out of date. Kevin Rudd won a ‘me too’ election in 2007 in which he promised to adopt all of the Coalition’s major policies, repositioning the ALP as a conservative party. As Abbott, Morrison, and Dutton moved the Coalition further and further to the right, the Liberals became an extreme right wing party and the ALP consolidated its conservative credentials. If there is such a thing as a centre left today, it’s probably the Teals and other independents.
Second, the seats remaining to the Liberal Party after its disastrous election loss last year are strongly right wing, meaning the remaining MPs can rightly claim to be representing their electorates by moving to the right yet again, becoming reactionaries. However, doing that signals to the electorate the Liberals have no interest in representing the country as a whole, and don’t therefore deserve any centrist electoral support.
Thirdly, it is the National Party that has acted as the wrecker in the recent troubles faced by the Coalition, definitely because of an arrogant belligerence in its ranks, but also because no one in that party has foreseen just how serious the threat to them is from One Nation, by splitting the conservative vote in their seats, and from the ALP, playing on its conservative credentials and taking advantage of the disarray on the extreme right. The National Party runs the risk of shrinking to an inconsequential minor party, or even losing all its lower house seats. The Liberal Party should not allow itself to be dragged further into that oblivion.
Strategically, if the Liberals actually plan on winning back some of the seats they lost, they need to move to the left. That is not to say they should become a party of the left, just less extremist than they have become, with more appeal to what the mass media calls ‘mainstream Australia’. It’s a difficult proposition for such a small party so heavily dominated by reactionaries apparently pitching to the Murdoch propaganda machine rather than voters. Even more difficult is the reality that this far out from an election, the Liberals are better served not acting in a Coalition with the National Party, given the latter’s intransigence about insisting on absurdly right wing policies rejected by the electorate twice now. Operating independently of the Nationals would allow the Liberals to make real changes to its policy mix, and to listen to the mood in the wider electorate rather than just to simple minded hardliners. The Liberals might even consider standing candidates against Nationals at the next election to minimize the potential threats from One Nation, who are pitching heavily to reactionary grievance voters the Nationals take for granted.
Various Liberals have paid lip service to ‘change’, but none seem committed to making real changes rather than falling back on the right wing extremism that cost it two elections now. It ought not to be so hard for the Liberals to understand that their electoral failures are due precisely to to their absurd march to ever more extremist right wing positions. Voters are turned off by ideological statements that are clearly untethered from policy outcomes. The sort of rhetoric that saw Morrison and Dutton fall from grace.
Angus Taylor is described by colleagues and media as affable, intelligent, and not ideologically hidebound, but it is hard to imagine how he can reshape his party into a force to be reckoned with in the wider electorate. He is not known for being articulate about vision and leadership.
In particular, how will Taylor establish his authority over what is now the party of long knives, likely to mount at least one more leadership challenge before the next election, given that the rump parliamentary party will find it hard to make any sort of mark? It won’t take any willingness to change, nor intellect and vision, for the remaining reactionaries to be seduced once more by the media commentariat to turn to the extremist populism so uncritically favoured by Australia’s media cartels: Nine Entertainment, News Corporation, and Seven West Media (which has emerged as even more right wing than the Murdoch family business since hiring News Corp alumnus Chris Dore).
Perhaps Taylor’s best chance is to work with state branches to push a more moderate image for the party in the states as a stepping stone to force his federal colleagues to follow suit. It would be quite a coup for Taylor if he managed a state insurgency to revitalize the federal party. It’s too late to save the SA Liberals. But Victoria goes to an election in November this year. NSW goes to the polls in March next year. Queensland, Tasmania, and WA won’t hold elections until too late for any positive changes to help the Liberals at the next federal election in 18 months. Victoria and NSW should offer some chance for Taylor to exert his influence outside the toxic Canberra circle.
All the same, that’s an extremely optimistic hypothesis.
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